EVERYONE REMAIN CALM. THERE IS NO NEED TO PANIC ABOUT THIS DISEASE WHICH IS GOING TO KILL US ALL. THE GOVERNMENT IS FULLY IN CONTROL OF THE SITUATION… WAIT, DID THAT MAKE IT WORSE?

Seriously, swine flu is getting really annoying. Apparently, there’s going to be a pandemic and, as anyone who’s ever had the misfortune to read a Michael Crichton novel knows, that’s BAD with a capital Fucked.

Only, it entirely misses the point. A pandemic, according to the WHO, satisfies the following three conditions:

1.  A new disease (to a population) emerges.
2. It infects people easily, and causes disease.
3. It spreads easily among people.

And yes, this strain of ‘flu does that. It’s infected 8 people in the UK, one of whom may not even have been to Mexico. A whole 8 people, with one possible case of transmission. Not quite 28 Days Later, is it?

Let’s remember exactly what this is – a strain of flu. And not even a particularly terrifying one. The reason Spanish flu and the recent H5N1 avian flu were so deadly was that they produced what’s known as a “cytokine storm” in an infected patient. Essentially, the immune system goes into a loop – it overreacts to a new pathogen, sending more and more immune system cells to the site of infection. This can cause severe damage to any organs which happen to be in the firing line. Since it’s the immune system which does the actual damage, the young and healthy are at a disproportionately greater risk than those with weaker immune systems.

But there’s no evidence that this strain of H1N1 flu does that. In all the various cases reported outside of Mexico, it’s acted like, well, the flu. The infected person has to sit in bed for a week and possibly take some tamiflu (which works really well, and of which we’ve got a ton). Oh, and incidentally, facemasks do nothing. Do not wear them. Don’t buy one, either, even if it’s “just in case”. All that happens is everyone panics and the facemask people grow even richer. I swear, one day we’ll find out that every new disease since SARS has been bioterrorism designed to sell facemasks.

But I digress. My point is, a new reassortment or a mutation of H1N1 could, potentially, be bad. But right now it’s just the flu, and we shouldn’t be unduly concerned.

It is worth pointing out, however, that ordinary, regular flu is a leading cause of death among the elderly even in the UK. So before we get worked up about a new disease for which we’re remarkably well prepared, perhaps we should make sure that older people get their flu vaccinations before the winter. That might not sell many newspapers (or facemasks) but it’d do a hell of a lot more good.

PS – Interesting fact: I had an exam yesterday which included a section on influenza, which on doing some fact checking for this post I now realise I completely buggered up. Make of that what you will.